A quick thought on the "Earth-One" OGNs

Heidi has a good write up on DC's newest initiative -- basically, it sounds like DC's version of the "Ultimate" line, but they're skipping out on the serialization, and going straight to OGNs.

There's not a ton of details in terms of exact format, pagination, or release schedule, so let's make some assumptions. Let's assume they're going to try for two releases of each character a year. Let's also assume that they'll be handled somewhat like THE JOKER HC from Azarello and Bermejo from late last year -- roughly 128 pages, in HC, for $24.95.

A monthly comic, of 22 pages each, would yield approximately 264 pages at the end of a year -- in this assumed OGN format, we're talking about 256 pages at the end of a year.

Using SUPERMAN: SECRET ORIGIN as a comparable metric, if these books were serialized as comics first, Comix Experience would sell something on the order of 50 copies of #1, 40 of #2, and an average of 30 copies each of #3-12, during our theoretical year. With a $2.99 cover price, on these 390 copies during a year would work out to $1166 (and ten cents).

In order to generate the same revenue from two OGNs, at a $25 price point, I'd need to sell almost 47 copies (46.73, says the calculator)

Here's the thing, though, in my experience OGNs are really only likely to sell 2/3rds or less of a similar periodical release (cf: 1001 NIGHTS OF SNOWFALL vs FABLES, LOEG: CENTURY vs LOEG: BLACK DOSSIER or SANDMAN: ENDLESS NIGHTS vs SANDMAN) -- and it can be closer to 1/3.

Working from the "mature" sales of #3 and beyond (which is really where you calculate these things, not from the top end of a #1), assuming 2/3 of those sales, that'd give me an order of 20 copies of v1. Even if we assume NO drop-off of v2 (hahaha, unlikely!), that'd yield a total of 40 copies sold. 40x$25 = $1000... or about 10% less revenue than a serialization would give us.

Of course, that's just "initial" sales -- one would presume this would continue to sell on and on, forever, if they're any good... but then you'd have the same from the TP collection of the serialized issues, so that's pretty much a wash.

(Also, you have to figure that somewhere between 10 and 25% of the people who bought a serialization will ALSO buy the collection... that goes away entirely with OGNs...)

[SANDMAN: PRELUDES AND NOCTURNES sells, for me, about 6 copies for every copy of ENDLESS NIGHTS I sell, today, years after initial release]

And, of course, I'm calculating using a $25 price point, if it is $19.95, or even less, that skews the math in a much uglier direction.

The bottom line is that customers are much less likely to plunk down for a Big Ticket item than they are for a periodical, which is one of the reasons that the OGN doesn't, to my mind, make a ton of sense.

And while it is possible that the "bookstore reader" will flock to superhero-OGN work... well, I kind of don't think that will happen... and, even if it does, I have a hardish time picturing them wanting it again and again -- because this theoretical 2x a year strategy IS a periodical, just much slower than usual.

Here's the thing: the "civilian" audience, the one in bookstores that we're assuming DC is going after on this? Well, they don't know, understand or WANT to understand the difference between a "TP" and an "OGN". TPs *are* "original" to them, if it is the first time they've ever seen it. When SUPERMAN: SECRET ORIGIN comes out in its eventual collection, it may as well BE an "OGN" to the bookstore customer. And when they ask "what's the difference between this and 'Earth One'?" is the answer going to make a lick of sense to them?

(My guess? No, not even a little bit)

This will be an interesting experiment, but one that I don't think is going to work all that successfully -- whatever the OGN might sell, I'm fairly certain that I would sell 1.x times as many as a periodical. Therefore the bookstores are going to have to make up the difference all by themselves... and I don't really see that happening.

-B

And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

[ONE EDIT: 9/9/09 9:54 PM, scroll to the next brackets]

As you may have now heard, Paul Levitz is now out at DC, and DC Comics will now become "DC Entertainment", headed by Diane Nelson.

This is, I think, much bigger news than the Disney/Marvel thing from last week. Paul certainly has his shares of detractors, but I've always thought of him as the Smartest Man in Comics, and absolutely one of the key Architects and Protectors of the DM.

Rich Johnston (of all people) has probably the best "eulogy" for Paul over on Bleeding Cool.

[HERE'S THE EDIT: Kurt Busiek nails it even better than Rich]

I think Paul is a Class Act, and there's nothing more that I fear than Warners completely ruining the DM. I'm absolutely shattered by this news -- I was hoping we'd have AT LEAST another decade with Paul at the helm, and now everything -- everything -- is up in the air.

Chances are that, by 2012, nothing in comics will even remotely resemble what it does today.

You can read Paul's farewell statement over here. I appreciate the fact that Paul specifically mentions retailers. He also uses the words "comics" as a noun five times.

You can read an introduction from Diane Nelson over here. This is probably the most relevant paragraph:

DC Entertainment’s mission is to deeply integrate the DC brand and characters into all of Warner Bros.’ creative production and distribution businesses, while maintaining the integrity of the properties and DC’s longstanding commitment to and respect for writers, creators and artists. The founding of DC Entertainment is about Warner Bros. taking DC to the next level and giving DC an even greater degree of focus and prioritization in all the businesses in which we operate—films, television, home entertainment, digital, consumer products and videogames.

She doesn't use the noun "comics" even one time.

That terrifies me.

I'll probably have more later, but right about now I have to start checking in my comics shipment...

-B

Hibbs' thought for the day

It's said that this week's ACTION and DCU: DECISIONS were also pulped because of some sort of other problem -- ACTION for showing Clark drinking beer on the cover. His bottle is now very glaringly labeled "SODA POP". You just know that Pa Kent has a moonshine still...

But DCU: DECISIONS is even weirder for me -- apparently it was to "de-Condi" one of the candidates, but between solicitation and publication, the cover suddenly now has a piece of graffiti on a wall that says "Heroes don't vote!" which, to me, is like 10,000 times worse than Clark drinking a brew, or Condi in the DCU. To me, I read it as "Hey kids, be a hero: Don't vote!"

*brrr*

God, I have to finish this Tilting I'm writing, more later.

-B

Zero Hour

Before I start, let me say "Cool!" for Douglas' Deconstruction of DC UNIVERSE ZERO (below), that was a rush I haven't felt since the good ol' days of 52 Pickup.

Here's hoping he does the same for FINAL CRISIS!

On the other hand, I'm not here to praise ZERO.

I think teasers and trailers are pretty cool. I especially liked the little "Glimpse" at the end of the "Sinestro War" storyline. That was awesome.

But it was awesome because it was a part of the package of entertainment that I had bought.

And that's my problem with ZERO -- I thought I was buying a package of entertainment, a story, an actual lead-in to FINAL CRISIS. And ZERO really isn't that.

Instead, it's basically that teaser at the end of GREEN LANTERN #25, times six.

Now, don't get me wrong, that's not a terrible thing in and of itself, I just don't think it is something that should be sold as an entertainment product.

What I think of most of all is Marvel's SECRET INVASION SAGA, the free giveaway that recapped a couple of decades of Skrull appearances before SI proper started. Retailers got x copies for free (a bundle of 25 for every 25 copies of WORLD WAR HULK you ordered), and you could also purchase more bundles if you liked. That's, in my mind, a better way to handle what's essentially a promotional tool.

Anyway, what did I get out of ZERO? Well, George Perez can sure draw those 80-jillion character pages; and I'm still not interested in "Batman: RIP" very much; and the Wonder Woman arc might be interesting, but not a great teaser; and yes, sure I'm still looking forward to "Blackest Night", but there's not much new there; and I haven't really got the slightest idea what the Rucka book is about from that preview; and FINAL CRISIS itself is sure to be gorgeous, but why are they charging 50 cents for this?

Apparently enough stores misordered ZERO, so that it is going to a second print (for a DOLLAR, sheesh!), which I can barely understand. But we've still got 3/4 of our order left and I'm sort of tempted to give it out on FCBD, actually, since we have so many copies left over, but I really really can't see anyone not already interested and buying DC comics decided they're going to buy anything coming out of this.

In an interview at Newsarama, Dan Didio said this:

"NRAMA: And as you’ve said before, this issue had to be a “primer” in a way for the DCU to readers who may be checking it out for the first time in a while?

DD: Right. When we did Countdown to Infinite Crisis, it really became a great jumping-on point just to get people in tune with the direction and tone of the DC Universe and familiarize or re-familiarize themselves with the characters of the DCU. This one again, has that same goal and agenda."

and I think that one those terms, this is a pretty miserable failure, because there weren't ANY introductions going on here, really, and there doesn't seem to be any discernible through-line going on.

I mean, I read each and every DC comic, and am a DC fanboy of the first water, but even I still don't really understand what FINAL CRISIS is "about", or, perhaps more importantly, where the hell the DC Universe is going AFTER it...

On the potential return of B*rry *ll*n, if that's meant to be a permanent change, and its not some sort of clever red herring, I do think its a bad idea. At the end of the day, he was really kind of a dull character himself, and there's only so far that "straight-edge" is going to take you (esp. when Superman fits that role in the DCU even better)

At my bottom line, I have a modicum of faith in Geoff and Grant to write exciting superhero comics, but I wonder if that's ALL that DC has going for them these days, and if there's any coherent plan that extends past those two writers.

For DC UNIVERSE ZERO, I'm going to go with either a high AWFUL or a low EH, depending on how cynical you actually are...

-B

BLACK DOSSIER annotations

Jess Nevins popped into one of our comments threads to point us to the online annotations of the BLACK DOSSIER HC -- I thought it deserved some time up on the front page so go look In other BD news, DC is SOLD OUT of the book (excepting whatever copies they've held back for damages and shortages) -- I found this out when I wanted more for Sunday's signing and was told "Nope."

I am cunning and strong, so I managed to get more copies, but still... when's the last time that DC sold out of a GN, and especially a HC, on the first day of release?

-B

All-WHAT?! -- Hibbs continues 5/16

ALL-STAR BATMAN AND ROBIN THE BOY WONDER #5: Paul Levitz apparently thinks that DC's publication of THE BOYS could do some theoretical harm to their core superhero business, or taint the icons, or something. This makes me wonder what Paul made of THIS.

Since it is the ACTUAL icons.

The strangest thing is that, had Frank Miller been drawing this, I'd probably have found it amusing and satirical and maybe even a little funny. But with Jim Lee? Lee is THE mainstream superhero comic book artist, so it adds a layer of weight and Importance to it all that just absolutely demands it be taken Seriously, and, thus, renders any satire as stone-faced earnestness.

But, really, REALLY, Levitz cancelled THE BOYS and continues to publish this? Really?

AWFUL.

What did you think?

-B

One Year (and a month) Later

So, listen, I’m not sure if I’m the perfect audience (long-time DC fan) or the deadly worst audience (long-time DC fan) for this kind of stunt – every “jumping on” point is equally a “jumping off” point, after all. Some mechanical stuff, first, I think… that “One Year Later” logo looks disturbingly like the “DC Bullet” doesn’t it? Plus, I’m of the mind that it was misplaced, in most cases. “Most” stores either rack with an overlapping top-to-bottom, or with overlapping left-to-right (We’re in the latter group) – this means that the single most valuable piece of “real estate” on the cover is the top left hand corner. Sadly, most of the OYL books have the logo in the middle-right… basically a terrible spot for the logo to “pop” off the cover. A banner would almost certainly have been more effective.

Now, sure, that’s almost moot, because pretty much all of the books sold out on the national level, but still, it’s basic Event Design.

Some (HI, D.G.!) have suggested that, perhaps, DC knowingly “under-printed” the OYL books, in order to get week after week of press releases out of it. While I find the rapid sell-outs at DC to be pretty fucking sad lately, I can’t go all the way to “on purpose”. Why? Because that would be FUCKING STUPID. If you don’t have stock on hand WHEN people come looking for it, then you’ve blown your best chance for a new reader. I also don’t believe that press releases on Newsarama (or whatever) really do jack shit for selling comic books (sorry, Matt!) – the people who regularly visit sites like that are either in the business (I personally check the major sites 3-5 times a day), or are the “Heavy Users” – those people who are already buying huge scary stacks of funny books, and who aren’t moving the needle very much on big events. They are ALREADY ON BOARD.

On-the-ground demand has been pretty heavy for the OYL stuff. I pegged most books at +20%, but, on most titles, I should have gone +30-50%.

What will be interesting is how much of this “growth” sticks at all – what is unclear is if these are OYL buyers, or if they’re genuine “samplers”, and, thus, how many of them will come back. When you add the crazy “Who The Fuck Knows” nature of the upcoming weekly “52”, it could well be an insane roller-coaster of trying to order DC comics in the next few months…

Speaking as a long-time DC fan (over 31 years of loving those characters), I’ve felt pretty cold to a lot of the OYL changes. Why? Well, part of it, I think, is that the “DC Universe” isn’t just about plot points, but about the accretion of familiarity and affection over a long period of time. Monthly hero comics are more like Soap Operas, than not, and there’s a certain amount of staidness I want as a reader. Superhero universes are sort of the equivalent of “comfort food” – Chicken Soup with Stars, or something.

OYL, of course, is trying very hard to not be Chicken Soup with Stars – several of the books seem like they’re trying to be Beef, Mango, and Rice soup, if you understand my metaphor – but even switching to Chicken with NOODLES would have been a big change, you know what I mean? The upheaval of the status quo means that the DCU isn’t (to change metaphors, suddenly) a comfortable old pair of shoes any longer – I don’t like the fit and feel of some of these new designs.

Ultimately, OYL makes us ALL strangers to the DCU – my 31 years of patronage really don’t seem to mean much any more than your “I just started reading with INFINITE CRISIS” tenure. Now, I’m sure Dan Didio will really embrace that – clean starting place for everyone, and all – but I tend to suspect that in the medium-run, it is going to be the long-term DC readers that will continue to be the largest portion of DC’s revenues, and that a significant percentage of the Grazers will wander back to their traditional pastures.

Part of the reason for that is that there’s really only 2 ways to do a OYL comic – either you a) completely shake up the status quo, so the book might as well be an all-new #1 anyway, or b) make it a mystery (“How did things get to be like THIS?!?!”) that makes filling in the backstory the driving narrative thrust. Problem is that mysteries get tired after a point (I suppose it is just possible for it to last, say, a year – but I think 6-9 months is about all of the patience that the audience is going to have.) (especially given how many books this is touching)

What I find… interesting? Ironic? Is that, so far, I’d call the largest successes of OYL to be the core Batman and Superman books, AS THEY (seemingly) TAKE THOSE CHARACTERS BACK TO THEIR PRE-EVENT STATUSES. The “un-Asshatting” of Batman, in particular, is both long-over due (I think he’s probably been going the wrong direction since, jeez “Knightfall” maybe? Though it really reached peak in “War Games” and “Omac”). Given that the universe probably rises or falls on the Big Icons, this is a positive and hopeful sign.

But, perhaps

Let’s get into individual titles, shall we?

Start with the Batman books. As alluded above, I thought DETECTIVE #817 was VERY GOOD, with BATMAN #651 probably in the GOOD range (there was some padding, I thought, on the latter)

CATWOMAN #53: used it’s OYL jump well, I thought – it really does feel like a year has past, but even older events are still relevant. I do think that it should be obvious to anyone (even, yes, the sad Angle Man) that Holly and Selina have different builds, but I guess that is comic books. Still, a promising new start: GOOD

NIGHTWING #118: Pure shit, as Dick seems as out of character as can be, and as editorial idiocy reveals the JT thing in the next issue box, but never mentions it in the comic book itself. Sad that he’s here, too – the story as left at the end of “Under the Hood” wouldn’t haven’t suggested this path to me. I’m also kinda annoyed that #117 ended with “Babs, will you marry me?” and #118 begins with Dick banging some anonymous redhead. Feh. CRAP.

ROBIN #148: Aside from the very very very clumsily staged opening (and thus the short-term plot of the book), I liked this more than I’ve liked the book in some time. Still, just OK

The Superman books were great, giving both SUPERMAN #650 and ACTION #837 VERY GOODs (though the latter sorta spoils IC #6, doesn’t it?)

SUPERGIRL #7: Oh, wait, this hasn’t come out yet. Ooops. I thought that was the whole point of shortening the Loeb run? For that matter, is #25 of SUPERMAN/BATMAN (though not OYL) going to come out in anything like a rational schedule, as it relates to INFINITE CRISIS?

Then into the general DCU…

AQUAMAN: SWORD OF ATLANTIS #40: Suffered a bit from ugly-in-places art, and there’s the somewhat…well, I don’t know, “derivative”? No, that’s not it… “Know ye, O Prince” narration, but this was probably the most like what I expected from OYL books – a radical rethinking of the base concept, and a strong new direction. I’ll go with a solid GOOD. Oh, and now that I’ve gotten home from unpacking the new comics, and have read #41 as well, yeah, AQUAMAN is what all of the OYL should have been, in theory.

BIRDS OF PREY #92: A bit clumsy, I thought – the Black Canary pages seemed like they belonged in another book, and I didn’t understand the “Jade Canary” thing, since Shiva wasn’t wearing that color. But, at least, Babs wasn’t running around in costume with her legs perfectly back (my biggest fear). A solid, if somewhat confusing OK.

BLOOD OF THE DEMON #13: Almost certainly the weakest of the OYL books – it felt like I missed 1, maybe 2 issues, not a whole year. No way this will make it past #24. Either a low EH or a high AWFUL.

BLUE BEETLE #1: OK, so not technically OYL (in fact, half of it was “pre-Crisis” – I guess Superboy punched something to explain the differences between the origin here and in IC), but, still it seems to fit. While I pretty much hate that new costume, and I’m very very confused as to powers (holding off a GL? Really?), I thought the human set up and reactions were pretty right on, and that this was a real enjoyable read. A very solid VERY GOOD, and a possible contender for PICK OF THE WEEK status.

FIRESTORM THE NUCLEAR MAN #23: I was a little dismayed that 1 issue after bringing back Prof Stein, he’s already gone, but the Firehawk thing was kinda cute, so there you go. Oddly, the was the sole OYL book for us that sold LESS copies than the previous issue. Couldn’t tell you why, however. Maybe too many changes too fast? I liked it OK.

GREEN ARROW #60: The first of the “did you see your own cover, man?” issues, wasting 22 pages to tell us what we already knew before we even opened the comic. Maybe it is me, but this also seems like the most unlikely/compelling OYL change. I mean, EX MACHINA works because it very much isn’t about super-heroes – I can’t possibly seeing GA either being believable or sustainable with the concept. Like when Luthor was President – that shit just didn’t WORK. I’ll go with a very weakly stated EH, close to AWFUL

GREEN LANTERN #10: Worked fine to give the sense that a geopolitical year has passed. Am very very worried about the “Sinestro Corps” idea. Wasn’t fond of the “Hal was a POW thing”, really, because wouldn’t one of a dozen other characters have come and rescued him? I’ll give it to Geoff, though, because this does allow him to neatly sidestep the tendency to make OYL stories a mystery ABOUT the lost year. I’m split between a very high OK and a very low GOOD though.

HAWKGIRL #50: Woof. That was…. Not very good. Between the art that was far too often phoned in stock poses and layout, and a script that seemed to be written to 8 year olds (“and then…” “…the lights went out!” ), this was almost an epic misfire. Or maybe I was anticipating it too much? Truly AWFUL.

JSA #83: Wait, a year passed? Honestly, it feels like Just Another Issue of JSA. I’m like a mad crazy JSA fan – on display in the store is a custom set of Matt Wagner JSA sketches (I’m, what, 6 short of the full set?), I was the biggest retailer booster of the characters at RRPs over the years, etc. – but, man, I just don’t care about the book any longer. And there’s a spin-off title too, yeesh. I’m Jumping Off here because it was just EH, just like JSA has been for nigh on a year (or more) now. (#84, which I just read tonight, cements that – double EH)

JSA CLASSIFIED #10: Much the same rant, with the addition that I like Paul Gulacy’s art on many things, but not on Superhero comics. On the very low end of EH.

MANHUNTER #20: Surprised me how much it felt connected to the (DC) Universe it actually felt. Problem is I still don’t find the base character to be all that compelling. OK

OUTSIDERS #34: Blech. Pretty much the only time “covert action” and “super heroes” has ever worked was in John Ostrander’s SUICIDE SQUAD. This is no SUICIDE SQUAD. AWFUL.

SUPERGIRL & THE LEGION OF SUPER-HEROES #16: Like GREEN ARROW, working to it’s last page, despite the cover. On the other hand, because the legion has changed a lot, and this might be the introduction of the “new characters” for a large # of people following Supergirl, that’s not necessarily a bad thing in this case. Still, “I’m dreaming you” better have something to back it up, Toot Sweet, cuz the next year being “is it? Isn’t it?” might just be too much to bear. Still, generally GOOD.

TEEN TITANS #34: I’m squeaking this in because I unloaded the comics today, and had time to read it. It didn’t ship in OYL month 1. (which, might I add, had 5 weeks in it!) Lots of big changes, but it looks like it is going route “b) make it a mystery (“How did things get to be like THIS?!?!”) that makes filling in the backstory the driving narrative thrust” with Vic as our POV character. What I will say is that I by and large think that TITANS is not X-MEN, and having former enemies join the teams as members just doesn’t work for this book. (despite not having read the next 4-6 issues!). Having said that, I liked quite a lot of this – especially the time-compressed first 3 pages from Vic’s POV, and I’ll be charitable and go with a low GOOD.

MM, that’s it then.

Hrm, for this week’s books (3/29) I liked ALL-STAR SUPERMAN #3 or BLUE BEETLE #1 or X-STATIX PRESENTS DEAD GIRL #3 or FALLEN ANGEL #4 as my PICK OF THE WEEK. Listed in order of If-You-Held-A-Gun-To-My-Head, but take your pick, they were all terrif.

For the PICK OF THE WEAK I’m going to go with IRON MAN #6, not because it was that bad, really, but, because after the year and a half, or whatever it was, it left me saying “And that’s it?”

My TP/GN OF THE WEEK is the softcover of TRAILERS from NBM. Terrific little book with art by the love child of David Lapham and Terry Moore. Big-time recommended!

What did you think?

-B

New TILTING up at Newsarama

http://www.newsarama.com/Tilting2_0/Tilting22.htm A disccsuion of DC's "RRP" meeting in Montreal last week, and some views on how DC's relationship with the Direct Market might be changing.

Interested in your thoughts, of course

-B